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EP: 84 What the Bond Market is Signaling to Traders and Investors

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EP: 84 What the Bond Market is Signaling to Traders and Investors
#FuturesRadio

 
 
00:00 / 19:13
 
1X
 

Guest:

Edward Harrison – Founder of Credit Writedowns and Producer of Boom Bust

Edward Harrison

Dear Traders,

Today we’ll hear from an ex-diplomat for the U.S Government and now founder of the blog “Credit Writedowns” and producer of Boom Bust. His name is Edward Harrison and he’s a macro-economist and alumni of both Dartmouth and Columbia.

He gives us an idea of where we’re at in the business cycle, and his reasoning to watch the jobs numbers for a possible recession trigger. Edward gives us great insight into the bond market, and explains why it is not a bubble, but instead it’s just a market signal.

Finally, he tells us his thoughts on the U.S wage growth and it not being suitable for the Fed’s future rate-hikes. A lot of great information today from Edward, thank you for listening, please enjoy this episode.

Biggest Takeaways:

  1. His reason to watch jobs numbers for possible recession triggers.
  2. Why he doesn’t believe the bond market is in a bubble, but instead it’s a market signal.
  3. Why he thinks U.S wage growth isn’t suitable for the Fed’s potential rate hikes.
  4. Edward discusses where we’re at in the business cycle.

Answers to the 4 rapid fire questions at the end of the show:

  1. Favorite Book About Trading:
    – Jack Shwager: Market Wizards
  2. Favorite Movie About Trading:
    – Trading Places
  3. Best Advice Ever Received About Trading:
    – Warren Buffets advice trading is like a baseball game, but you’re constantly getting pitches. You can just wait for your pitch to finally take a swing.
  4. Advice to Give to Others About Trading:
    – Keep your risk low. The most trouble I got in was when I thought I couldn’t be wrong, and had too much risk on.

Quotes:

“The bond market is front-running the Fed”

“The U.S is in a better place than the global economy”

“The biggest market signal internal to the U.S is unemployment” 

Resources:

Twitter:  https://twitter.com/edwardnh

Website:  https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2008/03/bio-edward-harrison.html

 

Relevant chart pertaining to guest’s comments:

Employment Data

harrison

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